Hooray! Despite one of the most wide-open NFL postseason races in recent history, we finally have an actual, genuine playoff team. The Packers broke the seal on Sunday afternoon, not only clinching a spot in the NFC bracket but also the NFC North title. But in a turn of events that fits the theme of this season, no other teams have hit their clinching scenarios.
As of this moment, 13 of the NFL’s 14 playoff spots remain open, and only five teams are officially eliminated. (The Bears joined the eliminated bunch on Monday.) Most notably, the Buccaneers lost at home Sunday night, an outcome that not only stymied their own immediate chances but also those of the Cowboys and Cardinals. There are still two games remaining in Week 15, following three COVID-19 delays, but it will end without an AFC team clinching a spot.
All of which means we’re in for a wildly entertaining final three weeks of the season. What follows is our look at the NFL playoff picture, based on ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and a bit of our own gut instinct. We’ll post a final update Tuesday night.
Note: X denotes a team that has clinched a playoff berth, Y shows a team that has clinched its division and Z indicates a team that has secured a first-round bye.
AFC
FPI chances to make playoffs: 99%
FPI chances to win division: 93%
The Chiefs will finish Week 15 atop the AFC thanks to their win Thursday night over the Chargers, along with losses by the Patriots and Titans. The Chiefs were at one point 3-4, but they have won seven consecutive games and are getting better results — if not better play-to-play efficiency — than any team in the NFL. They no longer have to worry about losing the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Chargers, and they can clinch the AFC West in Week 16 with a win over the Steelers and a Chargers loss to the Texans. And they have a 54% chance to get the first-round bye, per ESPN’s FPI.
Remaining schedule: vs. Steelers, at Bengals, at Broncos
FPI chances to make playoffs: 98%
FPI chances to win division: 55%
Current projected first-round matchup: vs. Bills
Saturday night’s loss to the Colts snapped the Patriots’ seven-game winning streak, dropped them from the top of the AFC and scuttled their scenarios for clinching a playoff spot and/or the AFC East in Week 15. It also set up a huge AFC East game in Week 16, following the Bills’ win Sunday over the Panthers. The Patriots will host the Bills, with the winner taking control of the division. It won’t be a true AFC East championship game, because neither team can clinch it with a victory alone. But the Patriots could clinch if they win the game and the Dolphins lose to the Saints.
Remaining schedule: vs. Bills, vs. Jaguars, at Dolphins
FPI chances to make playoffs: 97%
FPI chances to win division: 91%
Current projected first-round matchup: vs. Chargers
What an enormous swing the Titans went through this weekend. A win in Pittsburgh would have put them atop the AFC with three weeks left in the season and given them a 51% chance to win home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, per ESPN’s FPI. But now both the Chiefs and Patriots are in better position, leaving Tennessee at just 15% to finish at No. 1. Sunday’s loss also delayed the Titans’ chance to clinch the division. They’re still prohibitive favorites to win the AFC South, but it didn’t happen in Week 15. They could clinch it in Week 16 with a win over the 49ers and a Colts loss to the Cardinals.
Remaining schedule: vs. 49ers, vs. Dolphins, at Texans
FPI chances to make playoffs: 50%
FPI chances to win division: 38%
Current projected first-round matchup: vs. Colts
Well, look what we have here. The Bengals snapped their two-game losing streak by grinding out a win in Denver, and then a few minutes later, they ascended to the top of the AFC North following the Ravens’ loss to the Packers. The Bengals have the temporary head-to-head tiebreaker over the Ravens, but as luck would have it, the teams will meet in Week 16. Neither would clinch the division title with a win, but it will obviously be a huge leverage game for both teams. If the Bengals win, their one-game lead in the win/loss column would really be a two-game lead with three left to play because of the permanent head-to-head tiebreaker. So they’ll win the AFC North if they win their remaining games.
Remaining schedule: vs. Ravens, vs. Chiefs, at Browns
FPI chances to make playoffs: 82%
FPI chances to win division: 9%
Current projected first-round matchup: at Bengals
The Colts pulled off a huge win Saturday night, both qualitatively and quantitatively, and their good fortune continued Sunday. The Titans’ loss to the Steelers means the Colts are still in the AFC South race. A division title is still a long shot — ESPN’s FPI gives the Colts a 9% chance to do it — but at least they are not eliminated from it at this point. Regardless, the Colts should be riding high. Their win Saturday snapped an eight-game losing streak to the Patriots, and had they lost Saturday, the Colts’ playoff chances would have dropped to 42%. Instead, they have an 82% chance to get in, and they even jumped the Chargers in the AFC standings.
Remaining schedule: at Cardinals, vs. Raiders, at Jaguars
FPI chances to make playoffs: 73%
FPI chances to win division: 7%
Current projected first-round matchup: at Titans
The Chargers lost the biggest game they’ve played in years Thursday, but essentially they’re back to where they started that night: in a good position for a wild-card playoff berth. It would be just their second trip to the postseason in the past eight years. They had a legitimate chance to overtake the Chiefs in the AFC West, and it remains a statistical possibility, but it’ll require help from a Chiefs team that has developed a bunch of experience in closing out postseason position during the past few years.
Remaining schedule: at Texans, vs. Broncos, at Raiders
FPI chances to make playoffs: 85%
FPI chances to win division: 45%
Current projected first-round matchup: at Patriots
The Bills snapped their two-game losing streak and managed to stay in the AFC top seven thanks to the Ravens’ loss to the Packers. At the moment, the Bills hold the common-games tiebreaker over Baltimore. ESPN’s FPI is giving the Bills a great chance to make the playoffs, and their Week 16 game at the Patriots gives them a chance to take over the AFC East lead. The Patriots are favored in that game for a number of reasons, and rightfully so, but if you had told the Bills a few weeks ago that they would have a chance to retake the division lead in late December, they would have considered themselves fortunate. They’ll win the AFC East if they win their remaining games.
Remaining schedule: at Patriots, vs. Falcons, vs. Jets
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Stefon Diggs catches a pass from Josh Allen and fights his way in for a Bills touchdown in the second quarter.
In the AFC hunt
Baltimore Ravens (8-6)
The Ravens are so decimated by injuries and COVID-19 losses that coach John Harbaugh has felt compelled to go for a game-winning 2-point play twice in the past three weeks rather than take his chances in overtime. They have lost both games and are now on a playoff-crushing three-game losing streak. The Ravens will have a chance to turn it around in Week 16 at the Bengals, but ESPN’s FPI is giving them only a 57% chance to make the playoffs, and their division title odds fell to 38% this week.
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6-1)
The Steelers kept themselves in the playoff race with Sunday’s win over the Titans, but their level of difficulty is about to go up even more. A Week 16 game at the Chiefs, the hottest team in football, is not the kind of game they want while trying to stay within a reasonable distance of the race. ESPN’s FPI is giving Pittsburgh a 19% chance to make it to the postseason.
Las Vegas Raiders (7-7)
The Raiders kept their playoff hopes alive with a last-play victory over the depleted Browns. ESPN’s FPI now gives them a 9% chance of advancing to the postseason. All wins count the same in the standings, but if you watched the Raiders struggle to overcome a team of Browns backups, you probably don’t have much confidence in their chances, given upcoming games against the Broncos, Colts and Chargers.
Miami Dolphins (7-7)
Give some credit to the Dolphins for simply getting into this conversation. They have followed a seven-game losing streak with a six-game winning streak and have another winnable game in Week 16 at the Saints. Their chances to make the playoffs are still pretty minuscule at 6%, per ESPN’s FPI, but they exist.
Cleveland Browns (7-7)
Even without a large chunk of their roster, the Browns had a legitimate chance Monday night to take over first place in the AFC North. But they lost 16-14 on the final play to the Raiders and will end Week 15 at the bottom of the division. The AFC North is obviously tight, and the Browns will have a chance to climb back into the race. But Monday’s loss will make it much harder. ESPN’s FPI has Cleveland at 17% to make the playoffs.
Denver Broncos (7-7)
Sunday’s loss to the Bengals dropped the Broncos’ playoff chances to 8%, according to ESPN’s FPI. They have a winnable game in Week 16 at the Raiders, but with quarterback Teddy Bridgewater (concussion) likely sidelined, their postseason outlook is bleak.
NFC
FPI chances to make playoffs: Clinched
FPI chances to win division: Clinched
Sunday’s win in Baltimore gave the Packers the NFL’s first playoff berth, and they clinched the NFC North on top of it. Now they’ll turn their attention to winning home-field advantage throughout the playoffs; they’re currently 6-0 at Lambeau Field and 19-3 there in three regular seasons under coach Matt LaFleur. Their next two games are home, and their season finale is at Detroit. So it’s no wonder that ESPN’s FPI is giving them a 71% chance to secure the No. 1 seed.
Remaining schedule: vs. Browns, vs. Vikings, at Lions
FPI chances to make playoffs: 99%
FPI chances to win division: 99%
Current projected first-round matchup: vs. Saints
The Cowboys keep plugging along — no matter how imperfectly — and have now won three consecutive games after losing three of four. The Cowboys also moved ahead of the Cardinals and Buccaneers thanks to a better conference record, and they continue to be the overwhelming favorites to win the NFC East. In fact, they can clinch the division in Week 16 with a victory over Washington. And at the moment, there is a path to the division championship next week even if they lose to Washington. It would happen in these two scenarios: 1) Washington loses to the Eagles on Tuesday, and the Eagles lose to the Giants in Week 16; or 2) Washington loses to the Eagles on Tuesday and then the Cowboys are able to clinch the strength-of-victory tiebreaker over the Eagles in Week 16.
Remaining schedule: vs. Washington, vs. Cardinals, at Eagles
FPI chances to make playoffs: 99%
FPI chances to win division: 99%
Current projected first-round matchup: vs. 49ers
The Buccaneers could have clinched a playoff spot Sunday night with a win over the depleted Saints. Instead, they lost once again to the team that has proved Tom Brady‘s nemesis since he joined the Buccaneers. As a result, the Buccaneers were overtaken at least for the time being by the Cowboys, and they’ll have to wait at least one more week to clinch either a playoff spot or the NFC South. The good news is the Buccaneers won’t have to play the Saints again, at least in the regular season, after absorbing their second consecutive season sweep at their hands. Of more relevance to the Buccaneers’ long-term competitiveness: How will they be affected by injuries suffered Sunday night to receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and running back Leonard Fournette?
Remaining schedule: at Panthers, at Jets, vs. Panthers
FPI chances to make playoffs: 99%
FPI chances to win division: 72%
Current projected first-round matchup: vs. Rams
The Cardinals are going in the wrong direction. Sunday’s stunning defeat in Detroit was their third loss in five games. They’ve tumbled as far down the NFC standings as they could, at least while still holding on to the NFC West lead. But the damage isn’t as severe as it could be, assuming they can get themselves back on track. The Cardinals had multiple other paths to clinching a playoff spot in Week 15, even with a loss, but none of them materialized. And one scenario remains alive for clinching the NFC West in Week 16. To do so, the Cardinals would need to beat the Colts, while also having the Rams lose Tuesday to Seattle and then again in Week 16 to Minnesota.
Remaining schedule: vs. Colts, at Cowboys, vs. Seahawks
FPI chances to make playoffs: 97%
FPI chances to win division: 27%
Current projected first-round matchup: at Cardinals
The Rams’ COVID-19 outbreak pushed their game against the Seahawks to Tuesday, which should allow them to get back at least some of the key players who tested positive last week. They’ve already returned cornerback Jalen Ramsey. And meanwhile, the Seahawks have begun losing players to positive tests, including six on Sunday. The Cardinals’ downturn has also reopened the NFC West as at least an interesting possibility for the Rams. A win over the Seahawks would leave L.A. a game out with three left to play. ESPN’s FPI doesn’t consider it out of the question, putting the Rams’ chances at overtaking the Cardinals at 27%.
Remaining schedule: vs. Seahawks (Tuesday), at Vikings, at Ravens, vs. 49ers
FPI chances to make playoffs: 83%
FPI chances to win division: 1%
Current projected first-round matchup: at Buccaneers
Nobody is really talking about them, but the 49ers have won five of their past six games and have maneuvered into a near-lock position for a wild-card spot. ESPN’s FPI currently has their postseason chances at 83%. Their remaining schedule isn’t easy; they have games at the Titans and Rams, with a home game against the Texans. But the real question is whether there are two NFC teams set to overtake them at this point. The chances aren’t high.
Remaining schedule: at Titans, vs. Texans, at Rams
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Kyle Juszczyk, Deebo Samuel and Jeff Wilson Jr. all find the end zone on the ground as the 49ers take down the Falcons.
FPI chances to make playoffs: 32%
FPI chances to win division: Eliminated
Current projected first-round matchup: at Cowboys
The Vikings moved back into the No. 7 spot with Monday night’s victory in Chicago, but it remains to be seen if they stay there. Washington will supplant them Tuesday night if it beats the Eagles, but the Vikings will remain at No. 7 if the Eagles win. With all of that said, the best thing that can be said about Monday night’s game is that it kept the Vikings from falling into any more of a hole. Had they lost — an outcome that seems almost impossible given the condition of the Bears’ roster — their FPI chances to make the playoffs would have been 7%.
Remaining schedule: vs. Rams, at Packers, vs. Bears
In the NFC hunt
New Orleans Saints (7-7)
The Saints’ upset win over the Buccaneers lifted them temporarily into the playoff picture, but they fell back Monday night after the Vikings’ win over the Bears. Regardless, the Saints secured a huge victory that will help them in a myriad of tiebreakers, including division and conference record, and it’s worth noting that they don’t have another game scheduled against a team that currently has a winning record. New Orleans’ FPI playoff odds are at 49%, and the Dolphins are up next.
Washington Football Team (6-7)
Like the Browns and Rams, Washington is hoping to get at least some of its key players off the COVID-19 list before taking the field Tuesday against the Eagles. That list includes multiple quarterbacks, including starter Taylor Heinicke and backup Kyle Allen. If Washington can pull off a win, it’ll replace the Vikings as the NFC’s No. 7 seed. Washington has a 10% chance to make the playoffs at the moment, per ESPN’s FPI.
Philadelphia Eagles (6-7)
The Eagles have to wait until Tuesday to play Washington, a delay that will probably minimize the personnel advantage they otherwise would have had. But the worst part of the schedule change is that the Eagles will have to turn around and play the Giants five days later in Week 16. ESPN’s FPI is giving them a 28% chance to make the playoffs.