NFL playoff picture: Shuffling atop the AFC, NFC playoff seedings

Week 13 delivered a shakeup at the top of the AFC playoff standings and set up the potential for the same in the NFC. By the end of Sunday evening, the Ravens had taken the lead for home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs, and the Saints were in position to overtake the 49ers on the NFC side as early as Monday night.

Let’s take a closer look at the full NFL playoff picture (with Week 13’s Monday night game still to be played), using ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) to project the current probabilities where appropriate.

Note: X denotes a team that has clinched a playoff berth, Z shows a team that has clinched its division and Y indicates a team that has secured a first-round bye. An asterisk shows home-field advantage.

Jump to: AFC | NFC

AFC

The Ravens slugged it out Sunday with the 49ers in what many think (or hope) was a Super Bowl preview. Justin Tucker‘s 49-yard field goal gave the Ravens an eighth consecutive win, and a few hours later, it allowed them to leapfrog the Patriots for the top spot in the conference. Remember, the Ravens hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over not only the Patriots, but also the Texans.

This story hasn’t been fully written, as the Ravens have two difficult games remaining against playoff contenders: at Buffalo and home against Pittsburgh. But for the moment, it’s reasonable to expect the road to the Super Bowl to go through Baltimore.

Next up: at Buffalo (Week 14)

We know what’s coming: A week’s worth of public debate about whether the Patriots are cooked. For the record, they lost their second game of the season Sunday in Houston and are far from finished. But in the top-heavy AFC, a December loss carries weight. The Patriots have lost control of home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. But they’ll play three of their final four games at home, with one trip to the 1-11 Bengals. And they tend to play pretty well at home late in the season. Since 2001, they’re an NFL-best 36-4 at Gillette Stadium in the month of December.

Next up: vs. Kansas City (Week 14)

The Texans pulled off one of the biggest wins of the Bill O’Brien era on Sunday, letting the world know they are serious playoff contenders with a start-to-finish defeat of the Patriots. They are on track to win the AFC South for the fourth time in the past five seasons, but their playoff positioning isn’t likely to change much from its current spot. They’ll need to gain two games on the Patriots in four weeks, or three on the Ravens, to move into one of the top two spots in the AFC.

Next up: vs. Denver (Week 14)

The Chiefs all but wrapped up their fourth consecutive NFC West division title on Sunday by blowing out the Raiders 40-9. FPI gives them a 99.5% chance to clinch their division, which could happen as early as Week 14 with a victory and a Raiders loss. The Chiefs’ spot in the standings will depend in part on how the Texans fare moving forward; the Texans own the head-to-head tiebreaker between the teams.

Next up: at New England (Week 14)

Thanksgiving Day brought one of the Bills’ most meaningful and impressive victories in two decades. By dismantling the division-leading Cowboys on the road in a short week, the Bills showed they are capable of more than just feasting on a weak schedule. As a result, they are now a near lock for a wild-card playoff spot. They’re even in position to swoop into the AFC East lead if the Patriots falter. The Bills’ chance to reach the postseason is now 96.6%, according to FPI. With one more victory, they’ll have their best regular-season record since 1999.

Next up: vs. Baltimore (Week 14)

The Steelers’ sixth win in seven games allowed them to hold on to a spot for which their primary competition is now the Titans. At the moment, the Steelers hold the tiebreaker because of a better conference record. But the Steelers have two really tough AFC games remaining: at home against the Bills in Week 15 and at the Ravens in Week 17. For now, FPI is giving the Steelers a better chance (42.5%) to make the playoffs than the Titans’ (38.6%), but there is still a lot to be decided.

Next up: at Arizona (Week 14)

Next four

7. Tennessee Titans (7-5)
8. Oakland Raiders (6-6)
9. Indianapolis Colts (6-6)
10. Cleveland Browns (5-7)

NFC

The 49ers flew across the country, kicked off in the early time slot, slogged through a cold rain and were still locked up with the Ravens until the final seconds Sunday. Only a 49-yard field goal prevented overtime. In other words, the 49ers were awfully close to a victory that would have anointed them the best team in football.

Instead, the 49ers’ 20-17 loss threatens to release their grip on both the NFC West and the NFC overall. They’ll fall to No. 2 in the division and No. 5 in the conference if the Seahawks — playing at home — beat the Vikings on Monday Night Football. No matter what happens in Seattle, the 49ers are only two-thirds of their way through a historically brutal stretch against the Packers, Ravens and Saints. FPI has lowered their chance to win the NFC West to 59.3%, and their chance to hold on to the No. 1 spot in the conference sits at 35.5%.

Next up: at New Orleans (Week 14)

Having clinched the NFC South on Thanksgiving, the Saints are in the driver’s seat for home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. They’ll clinch that if they win out, regardless of what happens anywhere else in the conference, courtesy of would-be head-to-head tiebreakers with the 49ers and Seahawks. That presumes a win Sunday at home over the 49ers. FPI is already giving the Saints the best chance (42.2%) to finish the regular season atop the conference.

Next up: vs. San Francisco (Week 14)

At the moment, at least, the Packers are looking pretty good for the NFC North title. FPI is giving them a 61.1% chance to win it, and that’s before the Vikings play a really tough game Monday in Seattle. If a Vikings loss puts a full game between the two teams, the Packers can win the division even if they lose the teams’ Week 16 showdown at U.S. Bank Stadium. In that scenario, the most the Packers would need to do is defeat the Redskins and Bears at home in Weeks 14 and 15 and win in Detroit in Week 17, assuming the Vikings win their final four games. In either event, it’s a pretty reasonable path.

Next up: vs. Washington (Week 14)

The Cowboys owe a thank-you to the Eagles, who gave up 37 points to the tanking Dolphins and lost Sunday. In no other division would a 6-6 record put a team on track to host a playoff game. But that’s where the Cowboys find themselves, largely because the Eagles have lost three consecutive games. The Cowboys have yet to beat a team with a winning record this season (in five attempts) but could cruise into the playoffs by defeating the teams on their schedule that currently have losing records. But they should be careful. The Eagles can overtake the Cowboys by winning their remaining games, including a Week 16 game against the Cowboys. What a world.

Next up: at Chicago (Week 14)

The Seahawks have been positioning themselves for the smallest of stumbles from the 49ers, and now they’re in place to pounce. A victory Monday over the Vikings would elevate them to the top of the NFC West and, therefore, near the top of the conference. And no matter what happens in the interim, the Seahawks have two substantial advantages in protecting that position. First, they own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Saints. Second, they’ll host the 49ers in Week 17.

Next up: vs. Minnesota (Monday)

The Vikings are in excellent position for a playoff spot. FPI puts their chances at 94.1%. But their hopes of snatching the NFC North from the Packers will take a hit if they can’t win Monday in Seattle. In that case, the Vikings wouldn’t be able to win the division solely by defeating the Packers in Week 16. They would need the Packers to lose at least once to the Redskins (2-9), Bears (6-6) and/or the Lions (3-8-1). We shall see.

Next up: at Seattle (Monday)

Next four

7. Los Angeles Rams (7-5)
8. Chicago Bears (6-6)
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7)
10. Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)