Lowe: Four big questions that will decide this mysterious NBA Finals

After four years of LeBron James stalking Stephen Curry, and the Golden State Warriors flitting around an overmatched Cleveland Cavaliers defense, it is a relief to land upon an NBA Finals that feels like a mystery after two games.

Few firm patterns have emerged. The two teams have almost the exact same expected effective field goal percentage — 51.9 for Toronto, 51.8 for Golden State — based on the location of each shot and nearby defenders, per Second Spectrum tracking data. The Warriors seem vulnerable, then inevitable.

Hell, we don’t even know the health status of three All-Stars.

In looking ahead to Oakland, let’s start there.


How limited is Kawhi Leonard?

Leonard has 57 points, 28 free throw attempts, and 22 rebounds in two games, so it’s tempting to say he’s fine. Kevon Looney bounced off of Leonard like an 1980s jobber trying to spear Andre the Giant. Some of those 22 rebounds were those “where did he come from?” flying snatches where Leonard summons a ferocity that is both explosive and icy, stone-faced cool — and honestly a little alarming.

But he has also labored. Draymond Green roasted him for an easy layup. Klay Thompson wrongfooted him a few times off the ball. His free safety work hasn’t been as airtight.

Leonard ran only seven isolations in Game 2, his second-lowest figure in the playoffs, per Second Spectrum. He posted up only four times.

This does not look like a fully healthy Leonard getting back on defense:

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